Saturday, April 29th, 2017
Trump 13%Clinton 87%
Probability of Victory
ELECTORAL VOTES 216 322
Benchmark Politics is the only predictive model to include county-level demographic, economic, and polling data to make accurate predictions about national elections. Benchmark was the most accurate forecaster of the 2016 Democratic primaries. The probability bar above uses our proprietary model to predict the national race. The map below provides state and county spreads.
Senate Projections View by State

**County-level projections not available for Utah and Alaska.


National Polling


PollsterDate of PollSample SizeLV or RVMoEClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinSpread
Average44.441.852.2Clinton +2.6
Bloomberg11/4 - 11/6799LV3.5444142Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP Tracking11/3 - 11/61026LV3.1414362Trump +2
Rasmussen11/2 - 11/61500LV2.5454342Clinton +2
CBS News11/2 - 11/61426LV3.0454152Clinton +4
NBC News/Survey Monkey10/31 - 11/630145LV1.0474163Clinton +6
ABC/WaPo Tracking11/2 - 11/51937LV2.5474342Clinton +4
NBC/WSJ11/3 - 11/51282LV2.7444062Clinton +4
IBD/TIPP Tracking11/1 - 11/4804LV3.5444452Tie
Reuters/Ipsos10/31 - 11/42244LV2.2433962Clinton +4
Fox News11/1 - 11/31107LV3.0454352Clinton +2
McClatchy/Marist11/1 - 11/3940LV3.2444362Clinton +1
Rasmussen11/1 - 11/31500LV2.5444441Tie
ABC/WaPo Tracking10/31 - 11/31419LV3.0474342Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos10/30 - 11/32021LV2.5443762Clinton +7
Gravis11/1 - 11/22435RV2.0474531Clinton +2
IBD/TIPP10/29 - 11/2867LV3.4444442Tie
Rasmussen10/31 - 11/21500LV2.5424541Trump +3
CBS/NYT10/28 - 11/11333LV3.0474451Clinton +3
ABC/Washington Post10/29 - 11/11167LV3.0474532Clinton +2
Yougov10/30 - 11/11388LV3.0464342Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP10/26 - 10/311018LV3.2444543Trump +1
Morning Consult10/29 - 10/301772LV2.0423975Clinton +3
Rasmussen10/26 - 10/301500LV2.5454252Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP Tracking10/25 - 10/301039LV3.3454442Clinton +1
NBC/SurveyMonkey10/24 - 10/3040816LV1.0474163Clinton +6
ABC/WaPo Tracking10/26 - 10/291165LV3.0464542Clinton +1
IBD/TIPP Tracking10/23 - 10/281013LV3.3454172Clinton +4
Rasmussen10/25 - 10/271500LV2.5454532Tie
IBD/TIPP Tracking10/22 - 10/27973LV3.3444172Clinton +3
Gravis10/25 - 10/261824RV2.3464531Clinton +1
ABC News Tracking10/23 - 10/261109LV3.0484441Clinton +4
Rasmussen10/24 - 10/261500LV2.5444441Clinton +1
Saint Leo University10/22 - 10/261050LV3.0453472Clinton +11
YouGov10/22 - 10/261209LV3.3464142Clinton +5
IBD/TIPP Tracking10/21 - 10/26945LV3.3434182Clinton +2
Rasmussen10/23 - 10/251500LV2.5444341Clinton +1
ABC News Tracking10/22 - 10/251135LV3484251Clinton +6
Fox News10/22 - 10/251221LV2.5444173Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP Tracking10/20 - 10/25921LV3.3424183Clinton +1
Pew Research10/20 - 10/252120RV2.4464063Clinton +6
CNBC10/21 - 10/24804RV3.5433472Clinton +9
GQR Research10/21 - 10/24900LV3.3503852Clinton +12
Reuters/Ipsos10/20 - 10/241170LV3.3423872Clinton +4
Suffolk10/20 - 10/241000LV3473842Clinton +9
Rasmussen10/20 - 10/241500LV2.5434252Clinton +1
AP-Gfk10/20 - 10/241546RV2.8513762Clinton +14
IBD/TIPP Tracking10/19 - 10/24815LV3.6424183Clinton +1
CNN/ORC10/20 - 10/23779LV3.5494432Clinton +5
Rasmussen10/19 - 10/231500LV2.5414353Trump +2
IBD/TIPP Tracking10/18 -10/23815LV3.6414184Tie
ABC News Tracking10/20 - 10/22874LV3.5503852Clinton +12
IBD/TIPP Tracking10/17 - 10/22783LV3.6414373Trump +2
PPP10/20 - 10/21990LV--46405--Clinton +6
IBD/TIPP Tracking10/16 - 10/21791LV3.6404274Trump +2
Morning Consult10/19 - 10/201395LV3.0423694Clinton +6
Rasmussen10/18 - 10/201500LV2.5414353Trump +2
Rasmussen10/17 - 10/191500LV2.5404363Trump +3
Quinnipiac10/17 - 10/181007LV3.1474071Clinton +7
Rasmussen10/16 - 10/181500LV2.5424271Tie
Yougov10/15 - 10/18925RV3.9423861Clinton +4
IBD/TIPP10/13 - 10/18782LV3.6404186Trump +1
Fox News10/15 - 10/17912LV3453953Clinton +6
Bloomberg10/14 - 10/171006LV3.1473883Clinton +9
Rasmussen10/13 - 10/171500LV2.5424172Clinton +1
Reutuers/Ipsos10/13 - 10/171190LV3.3423862Clinton +4
Monmouth10/14 - 10/16726LV3.6503852Clinton +12
Rasmussen10/13 - 10/161500LV2.5434152Clinton +2
CBS News10/12 -10/16778LV--473883Clinton +9
NBC News/SurveyMonkey10/10 - 10/1624804LV1.0464084Clinton +6
Morning Consult10/13 - 10/151737LV24236103Clinton +6
Survey USA10/11 - 10/14845LV3.4463652Clinton +10
Rasmussen10/11 - 10-131500LV2.5414362Trump +2
ABC News/WaPo10/10 - 10/13740LV4.0474352Clinton +4
NBC News/WSJ/Marist10/10 - 10/13905LV3.3483772Clinton +11
Franklin Pierce University10/9 - 10/131011LV3.1464162Clinton +5
GWU Battleground10/8 - 10/131000LV3.1473972Clinton +8
Fox News10/10 - 10/12917LV3453873Clinton +7
Rasmussen10/10 - 10/121500LV2.5414362Trump +2
Rasmussen10/9 - 10/111500LV2.5433972Clinton +4
Insights West10/10 - 10/11953LV3.2423762Clinton +5
Morning Consult10/10 - 10/102001RV2.04237103Clinton +5
Reuters/Ipsos10/6 - 10/102363LV2.2443762Clinton +7
NBC News/WSJ/Mairst10/8 - 10/10806LV3.5463782Clinton +9
Pew Research9/27 - 10/103616RV2.94639104Clinton +7
NBC News/WSJ/Marist10/8 - 10/9447LV4.6463592Clinton +11
PRRI / The Atlantic10/5 - 10/9886 LV3.9493820Clinton +11
Rasmussen10/5 - 10/91500LV2.5443972Clinton +5
NBC/Surveymonkey10/2 - 10/923329LV1464183Clinton +5
Politico/Morning Consult10/8 - 10/81549RV3423883Clinton +4
YouGov/Economist10/7 - 10/8971RV4.2443851Clinton +6
FOX News10/3 - 10/6896LV3444262Clinton +2
Quinnipiac10/5 - 10/61064LV3454063Clinton +5
Rasmussen Reports10/4 - 10/61500LV2.5434272Clinton +1
Gravis10/3 - 10/31690RV2.4444451Tie
Economist/YouGov10/1 - 10/3911RV3.9434053Clinton +3
Reuters/Ipsos9/29 - 10/31239LV3.2423682Clinton +6
CBS News9/28 - 10/21217LV4454183Clinton +4
PRRI/The Atlantic9/28 - 10/2609LV3.6474130Clinton +6
CNN/ORC9/28 - 10/21213LV3474272Clinton +5
Rasmussen Reports9/28 - 10/21500LV2.5434082Clinton +3
FOX News9/27 - 9/29911LV3434084Clinton +3
NBC News/SurveyMonkey9/26 - 10/226925LV1464093Clinton +6
Rasmussen Reports9/27 - 9/291500LV2.5434262Clinton +1
PPP 9/27 - 9/28933LV3.2444061Clinton +4
Rasmussen Reports9/26 - 9/281500LV2.5424172Clinton +1
Reuters/Ipsos9/22 - 9/261041LV3.5423872Clinton +4
Quinnipiac9/22 - 9/251115LV2.9444382Clinton +1
Bloomberg9/21 - 9/241002LV3.1414384Trump +2
Monmouth9/22 - 9/25729LV3.6464282Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov9/22 - 9/24948RV3.8444152Clinton +3
NBC News/SurveyMonkey9/19 - 9/2513598LV1.14540103Clinton +5
ABC News/WaPo9/19 - 9/22651LV4.5464451Clinton +2
Rasmussen Reports9/20 - 9/211000LV3394482Trump +5
Gravis9/20 - 9/201560LV2.5444052Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov9/18 - 9/19936RV4403872Clinton +2
Reuters/Ipsos9/15 - 9/191111LV3.4373972Trump +2
McClatchy/Marist9/15 - 9/20758LV3.64539104Clinton +6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl9/16 - 9/19922LV3.2433792Clinton +6
Associated Press-GfK9/15 - 9/161251LV--453992Clinton +6
NBC News/SurveyMonkey9/12 - 9/1813320LV1.24540104Clinton +5
FOX News9/11 - 9/14867LV3414083Clinton +1
Rasmussen Reports9/12 - 9/131000LV3404272Trump +2
CBS News/NYT9/9 - 9/131433LV3424284Tie
Economist/YouGov9/10 - 9/13926RV4424053Clinton +2
Quinnipiac9/8 - 9/13960LV3.24139134Clinton +2
Morning Consult9/6 - 9/81710LV24139103Clinton +2
ABC News/Wash Post9/5 - 9/8642LV4.5464192Clinton +5
Rasmussen Reports9/6 - 9/71000LV3433992Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov9/4 - 9/6955RV4.7403875Clinton +2
Reuters/Ipsos9/1 - 9/51084LV3.5403883Clinton +2
CNN/ORC9/1 - 9/4786LV3.5434572Trump +2
Franklin Pierce/RKM/Boston Herald8/31 - 9/41025LV3.1444183Clinton +3
NBC News/SM8/29 - 9/432226RV14137124Clinton +4
Morning Consult9/1 - 9/22001RV2383694Clinton +2
GWU/Battleground8/28 - 9/11000LV3.14240113Clinton +2
IBD/TIPP8/26 - 9/1861LV3.43939123Tie
FOX News8/28 - 8/301011RV3413994Clinton +2
Rasmussen Reports8/29 - 8/301000LV3394073Trump +1
PPP8/26 - 8/28881LV3.3423764Clinton +5
Economist/YouGov8/27 - 8/291119RV4423773Clinton +5
Reuters/Ipsos8/25 - 8/291404LV3403862Clinton +2
Monmouth8/25 - 8/28689LV3.7463972Clinton +7
USA Today/Suffolk8/24 - 8/291000LV3423594Clinton +7
NBC News/SM8/22 - 8/2824104RV14137115Clinton +4
Morning Consult8/24 - 8/262007RV2393783Clinton +2
Gravis8/22 - 8/231493LV2.5424141Clinton +1
Rasmussen Reports8/23 - 8/241000LV3423892Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos8/20 - 8/241049LV3.5393673Clinton +3
Economist/YouGov8/19 - 8/23906RV4.1423864Clinton +4
Quinnipiac8/18 - 8/241498LV2.54538104Clinton +7
NBC News/SM8/15 - 8/2117459RV1.14338115Clinton +5
Morning Consult8/18 - 8/202001RV2393684Clinton +3
Pew Research8/9 - 8/161567RV2.84137104Clinton +4
Rasmussen Reports8/15 - 8/161000LV3413993Clinton +2
Reuters/Ipsos8/13 - 8/171049LV3.5393572Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov8/14 - 8/16911RV4.2413573Clinton +6
Morning Consult8/11 - 8/142001RV2393394Clinton +6
NBC News/SM8/8 - 8/1415179RV1.24337114Clinton +6
Zogby8/12 - 8/131277LV2.8383685Clinton +2
Rasmussen Reports8/9 - 8/101000LV3434082Clinton +3
Gravis8/9 - 8/92832LV1.8423793Clinton +5
Bloomberg8/5 - 8/8749LV3.6444094Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos8/6 - 8/10974LV3.5403573Clinton +5
Economist/YouGov8/6 - 8/9911RV4.2423692Clinton +6
Monmouth8/4 - 8/7683LV3.8503772Clinton +13
NBC News/SM8/1 - 8/711480RV1.24438104Clinton +6
Morning Consult8/4 - 8/52001RV2413395Clinton +8
ABC News/Wash Post8/1 - 8/4815RV4453784Clinton +8
IBD/TIPP7/29 - 8/4851RV3.43935125Clinton +4
McClatchy/Marist8/1 - 8/3983RV3.14531106Clinton +14
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl7/31 - 8/3800RV3.54334105Clinton +9
Rasmussen Reports8/1 - 8/21000LV3444063Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos7/30 - 8/31072LV3.5423862Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov7/30 - 8/1933RV4.1413684Clinton +5
RABA Research7/29 - 7/29956LV3.2463172Clinton +15
Penn Schoen Berland7/29 - 8/11000LV345405N/AClinton +5
CNN/ORC7/29 - 7/31894RV3.5453795Clinton +8
PPP7/29 - 7/301276LV2.7464162Clinton +5
NBC News/SM7/25 - 7/3112742RV1.2423894Clinton +4
Morning Consult7/29 - 7/301931RV2413611N/AClinton +5
Reuters/Ipsos7/25 - 7/291433LV2.9373751Tie
Penn Schoen Berland7/22 - 7/241000LV341446N/ATrump +3
CNN/ORC7/22 - 7/24882RV3.5394493Trump +5
Economist/YouGov7/23 - 7/241057RV4.5403853Clinton +2
NBC News/SM7/18 - 7/2412931RV1.23941105Trump +2
RABA Research7/22 - 7/22909LV3.3393483Clinton +5
Reuters/Ipsos7/16 - 7/201232RV3.2393573Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov7/15 - 7/17925RV4.5403754Clinton +3
Morning Consult7/14 - 7/162002RV2383511N/AClinton +3
Monmouth7/14 - 7/16688LV3.7454351Clinton +2
NBC News/SM7/11 - 7/179436RV1.43940105Trump +1
CNN/ORC7/13 - 7/16872RV3.54237135Clinton +5
Franklin Pierce/RKM/Boston Herald7/12 - 7/161007LV3.1444172Clinton +3
ABC News/Wash Post7/11 - 7/14816RV4423885Clinton +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl7/9 - 7/131000RV3.14135116Clinton +6
Economist/YouGov7/9 - 7/11932RV4.5403752Clinton +3
Associated Press-GfK7/7 - 7/11837RVN/A403662Clinton +4
Morning Consult7/8 - 7/102001RV2393712N/AClinton +2
RABA Research7/7 - 7/9781LV3.5412992Clinton +12
McClatchy/Marist7/5 - 7/91053RV34035105Clinton +5
Reuters/Ipsos7/2 - 7/61345RV2.8423364Clinton +9
Penn Schoen Berland7/1 - 7/51000LV340369N/AClinton +4
Economist/YouGov7/2 - 7/41004RV4423743Clinton +5
Morning Consult6/30 - 7-42001RV2383711N/AClinton +1
USA Today/Suffolk6/26 - 6/291000LV3393583Clinton +4
PPP6/27 - 6/28947RV3.2454152Clinton +4
IBD/TIPP6/24 - 6/29837RV3.5373695Clinton +1
Reuters/Ipsos6/25 - 6/291247RV2.8423154Clinton +11
Morning Consult6/24 - 6/274001RV2393611N/AClinton +3
Quinnipiac6/21 - 6/271610RV2.4393784Clinton +2
ABC News/Wash Post6/20 - 6/23836RV4473773Clinton +10
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl6/19 - 6/231000RV3.13938106Clinton +1
Reuters/Ipsos6/18 - 6/221339RV2.8433465Clinton +9
CNN/ORC6/16 - 6/19891RV3.5423897Clinton +4
Monmouth6/15 - 6/19721LV3.7443794Clinton +7
Reuters/Ipsos6/11 - 6/151323RV2.8392964Clinton +10
Morning Consult6/8 - 6/91362RV3393310N/AClinton +6
Guardian/SurveyUSA6/8 - 6/81408RV2.7393964Clinton +3
Quinnipiac5/24 - 5/301561RV2.5403853Clinton +2
PPP5/6 - 5/91222RV3.2423842Clinton +4